Mark Allman, Wesley Eddy, Shawn Ostermann. Estimating Loss Rates With TCP. ACM Performance Evaluation Review, 31(3), December 2003.
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Abstract:

Estimating loss rates along a network path is a problem that has received much attention within the research community. However, deriving accurate estimates of the loss rate from TCP transfers has been largely unaddressed. In this paper, we first show that using a simple count of the number of retransmissions yields inaccurate estimates of the loss rate in many cases. The mis-estimation stems from flaws in TCP's retransmission schemes that cause the protocol to spuriously retransmit data in a number of cases. Next, we develop techniques for refining the retransmission count to produce a better loss rate estimate for both Reno and SACK variants of TCP. Finally, we explore two SACK-based variants of TCP with an eye towards reducing spurious retransmits, the root cause of the mis-estimation of the loss rate. An additional benefit of reducing the number of needless retransmits is a reduction in the amount of shared network resources used to accomplish no useful work.

BibTeX:

@article{allman03a,
    author  =        "Mark Allman and Wesley Eddy and Shawn Ostermann",
    title   =        "{Estimating Loss Rates with TCP}",
    journal =        "ACM Performance Evaluation Review",
    year    =        2003,
    volume  =        31,
    number  =        3,
    month   =        dec,
}